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namely Commercial opportunities evaluating and Sales forecast, which are feasible to confirm whether the product have the potential to make profit as it seems (Silk and Urban,1976). Commercial potential of new products, on behalf of the capacity and growth rate of market opportunities, to some extent, can also be seen as the maximum demand of new products. Market penetration of new products represents the implement ability of commercial potential in a specific situation. Therefore it can be regarded as top limit of sales. As there are too many uncertainties about the new products or services, it is difficult to assess the commercial opportunities accurately and some subjective intention or motive also has certain impact on the result (Lawrence and Edmundson, 2000). Of course, the so-called commercial opportunities evaluating will provide many valuable information for reference, especially in the beginning of development of the case, and the outcome of the assessment may often carries much weight of the decision whether the new idea is worthwhile to continue. Sales forecast is a specific evaluation from the views of the market structure and consumer demand and it also has closely relation to the development of new product. Because, product features, price, advertising, channels of distribution together with external factors including competitors, marketing strategies, reactions of distributors, the impacts of public media, buyers’ preference, changes in laws and regulations and so on will affect the potential market share of products (Rothe, 1978).

Commercial opportunities evaluating represents an expectation of the total sales value, while the sales forecast with available market share, sales, and revenues is a business plan to guide development and marketing of the new product. The former includes the commercial potential and market penetration of new products. And the latter is an assessment of available market share of the case after taking into account of market structure and competition strategy.

Commercial opportunities evaluating

A complete set of commercial opportunities evaluating process includes steps as follows:
i. Identify key market factors affecting market demand. The factors include the practical condition of market and the major relevant parties;

ii. Design the computing model to evaluate the market potential and the subroutine to estimate the variables ;
The following example is the calculations of the smart mobile phone’s market potential:
Pot(t)=Pop(t)×Tek(t)×Awr(t)×Avl(t) ×Buy(t)
Pot (t) =t time of the market potential (the potential number of buyers)
Pop (t) =the population base in the selected segmentation at the t time t (the largest numbers of potential buyers)
Tek (t) =the degree of technology at the t time (such as the estimated speed of operation of the smart mobile phone)
Awr (t) =the reorganization among potential buyers  
Avl (t) =the serviceability of the smart mobile phone
Buy (t) =the purchasing intentions among potential buyers (the proportion of purchase at various price and under the assumption of the best quality)

iii. Collect information on the variables of the target market;
iv. Analyze the data of variables, and research on the market segmentation;
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