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结构性的经济动态
如何控制经济增长平衡度
A structural economic dynamics
Approach to balance-of-payment sconstrained Growth
本文所提供的经济增长比率较相近，从一个部门可以衍生出来相关的法律制度，从而可以产生一定的经济公式，这个我们可以称之为瑟尔沃尔的法律，具体就是指一下国家的经济增长速度，属于结构性的经济动态，人均收入和出口量是成正比的，基本可以控制经济增长的平衡度。而且这些收入的弹性指数可以衡量各职能部门在进口和出口的份额比例。事实上证明，这些理论是可以对经济政策产生影响，可以得出一个经济结构的动力学方法来平衡收支的增长比率。
This paper derives a balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate analogous to Thirlwall’s Law from a Pasinettian multi-sector macrodynamic framework. The resulting formula, which we call the Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall’s Law, asserts that a country’s growth rate of per capita income is directly proportional to the growth rate of its exports, with such a proportionality being inversely (directly) related to sectoral income elasticities of demand for imports (exports). These income elasticities are weighted by coefficients that measure the share of each sector in total imports and exports, respectively. It is shown that several theoretical, empirical and policy implications can be drawn from such a structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth.
关键词：经济结构的力度，对外贸易乘数，发展不平衡，需求的经济活动之中各部门所扮演的角色是一个有争议的问题。
Key words: Structural economic dynamics, Foreign trade multiplier, Balance-ofpayments- constrained growth, Uneven development JEL classifications: O19, F121. Introduction The role played by aggregate demand in the determination of the level of economic activity is a contentious issue. While aggregate demand is asserted to interact with aggregate supply to determine output and employment in the short run in most macroeconomic models, it is only in some non-neoclassical macroeconomic models that the long-run performance of economic activity is asserted to be determined by aggregate demand as well. Indeed, neoclassical theories of economic growth—both in the original version developed by Solow (1956) and in the several endogenous-growth versions that have been developed since the mid-1980s (see Aghion and Howitt, 1998, for a review)—assume that the growth rate of per capita income is determined solely by supply-side factors. These incarnations of the neoclassical growth theory, by assuming that, in the long run, productive capacity in terms of capital and labour is always fully utilised, actually assume away the very possibility of growth being affected by effective demand.
Manuscript received 8 May 2006; final version received 14 February 2007. Addresses for correspondence: Ricardo Azevedo Araujo; email: * Catholic University of Brası′lia; and University of Sa˜o Paulo, respectively. We should like to thank Anthony Thirlwall and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper; however, any remaining errors are our own. Gilberto Tadeu Lima gratefully acknowledges research funding granted by the Brazilian National Council of Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).
Cambridge Journal of Economics 2007, 31, 755–774 doi:10.1093/cje/bem006 Advance Access publication 15 May, 2007
The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved.In an open macroeconomy context, a forceful Keynesian demand-oriented approach emphasising the external constraints to growth is the so-called theory of ‘balance-ofpayments- constrained growth’ (hereafter referred to as BP-constrained growth), also known as ‘Thirlwall’s Law’ (after Thirlwall, 1979)—a