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论文作者:www.51lunwen.org论文属性:作业 Assignment登出时间:2016-01-14编辑:carrie2点击率:8243
论文字数:1546论文编号:org201601112213098888语种:英语 English地区:澳大利亚价格:免费论文
摘要:本文讲述了影响长期通货膨胀率的变量是国家的规模、开放程度、政治稳定、政府债务、中央银行独立性。作者在他的模式中使用了国家规模、开放程度和政治稳定。其他变量是人均国内生产总值和贸易条件等,这都影响了长期的实际汇率。
Terms of trade: Due to the lack of availability of data on terms of trade, I have used current account balance (percentage of GDP) as a proxy for it. It includes all transactions other than those in financial and capital items. The shorthand reference is TT.
Source: IMF Data & Statistics
4 Econometric Analysis计量分析
The econometrics procedure includes cross sectional study of determination of long run change in nominal exchange rates using ordinary least squares estimation. The software used for this purpose is econometric views (Eviews).
Following is the equation to be estimated:
πiE=α+β*zi+γ1*gi+γ2*πTTi+εi
where πiE is the long run change in nominal exchange rate. The independent variable zi includes the variables affecting inflation. These are the size of the country which is measured by GDP & political stability.
Following are the results of OLS estimation of the above equation
Dependent Variable: NER
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1 129
Included observations: 128
The observations exclude the countries which do not have an autonomous exchange rate policy. The coefficients of the variables GDP & GPC are not consistent with the literature review. GDP is a proxy variable of country size. According to the paper, long run inflation is less in small countries which implies a lower rate of growth of nominal exchange rates. Hence, the sign of the coefficient of GDP should be positive.
GPC is used to measure the growth rate of the economy. Theory suggests that economic growth leads to an appreciation of the exchange rate, slowing down the rate of growth of nominal exchange rate. This suggests that the coefficient of GPC should be negative.
The coefficients of openness, political stability & terms of trade show that they are negatively correlated with the growth of nominal exchange rate. This is in accordance with the economic reasoning explained above. The coefficient of political stability is statistically significant.
F-statistic is statistically significant rejecting the null hypothesis that all regression coefficients are zero.
Following are the results when we include in our dataset the countries that follow pegged exchange rate policy
Dependent Variable: NER
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1 170本论文由英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写,英语论文代写,代写论文,代写英语论文,代写留学生论文,代写英文论文,留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。