报告:security analysis [2]
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关键词:security analysis风险分析profitable investmentgovernment bondsnatural resources company
摘要:The financial risk and operation risk of Qantas was increased in 2009 and the growth rate of its share price is still negative. There is no obvious signs that performance of Qantas will be largely improved this year. BHP, by contraries, is increasing steadily and BHP has strong profitability because of its status in the industry.
desired by small investors. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler (2004) had indicated that paying dividend would cater to investors. The dividends per share of the four companies differ considerably. Qantas doubled the dividend paid in 2007. But it reduced the dividend by about 70% in 2009. BHP , on the contrary, increased its dividend by 17.1 % to 82 cents per share. Oracle, as a young high-tech company, has s strong demand for capital and we can understand why it never distributed dividends in the past four years. BP managed to increase its share dividends slightly in 2009.
2.2 Influential factors
The growth rate of Qantas has been slower since the beginning of 2008. The stock price decrease is partly ascribed to the financial crisis, of which negative influence has been shown in the financial report.
Figure 6 shows key profitability data of Qantas from 2007 to 2009.
2007 2008 2009
Revenue 14,525 15,627 14,552
Operating margin 19.13% 20.50% 14.14%
EBIT 1,047 1,362 203
Net profit 720 970 123
Net profit margin 4.96% 6.21% 0.85%
Source: Calculated Based on Annual Report of Qantas, 2010
From the above table we can see that profitability of Qantas declined significantly in 2009. Operating margin was 14.14% in 2009 while it was 19.13% in 2007 and 20.50% in 2008. Besides, EBIT and net profit decreased much in 2009 and the net profit margin of Qantas was only 0.85%. The weak performance of 2009 was because of the loss of associates and jointly controlled entities and the large decrease in finance income.
BHP belongs to those “valuable and safe” stocks. It keeps a growing rate of more than 50% even in the background of the financial crisis. The excellent performance of BHP firstly comes from its monopoly position in natural resource especially iron ore. It is one of the three biggest iron ore merchants in the world, and they nearly control the price and supply of iron ore, which is the raw material of iron industry. The company made the best use of high-quality governance to deal with the crisis.
Oracle is the largest enterprise software company in the world and its exceptional performance comes from its increase in the market share of New Software Licenses and Database and Middleware Software. According to the annual report, the revenue of Oracle increased by 822 million dollars in 2009 and net profit increased by 72 million dollars. In recent years, Oracle has invested billions of dollars to acquire a number of complementary companies to consolidate its status in the software industry.
Owing to the decline of oil price, the operation results of BP in 2009 was not satisfied. Total revenue decreased by 33% and net profit went down by 23%. The revenue of the business segment of Exploration and Production decreased from 86170 million dollars to 57626 million dollars and the turnover of Refining and
Marketing decreased from 320,039 to 213,050 million dollars.
2.3 Risk distribution
Security risk can be divided into systematic risk and unsystematic risk. Systematic Risk is the possibility of loss to all the investors resulting from interest rates, exchange rates, macroeconomic policies, and business cycles or other political factors like war. Unsystematic risk is resulted from the specific factors of the company itself and influences the price of a single company. It is in the form o
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