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el and had been the cornerstone of nearly all of its Track II interlocutors preferred policy statements. As per this formula, the city of Jammu and some districts of Jammu Province will go to India while most parts of the Kashmir Valley as well as parts of Jammu region would be transferred to Pakistan. The division will be based on the flow of Chenab, but it would to some extent correspond to the religious demography. This particular formula may not be palatable to the Indian establishment as they see a clever excuse of Pakistan to thus control all the catchment areas of River Chenab. They argue that it is precisely this reason that Pakistan do not wish to go strictly as per religious demarcation which is its much publicized viewpoint, but ask for part of Jammu region as well. The physical control over the Chenab valley is being sought, as it would help Pakistan build dams upstream and regulate the river flows to Punjab and Sindh. Moreover, it provides strategic depth to Mangla Dam and the Potohar Region. While Mangla is an exclusive dam for Punjab, Potohar provides the Pakistani army with more than half its recruits. This particular plan is a zero sum game from the perspective of Indian security. If hostility reaches a degree where Pakistan formally proposes the Chenab Formula, and not merely as a suggestion in track two diplomacy, Indian response to this will be in the negative and belligerent. [14]

 

Capture of Kashmir Valley. Since Chenab Formula and consequent division of Jammu portends war, an alternative solution which is increasingly becoming part of Pakistani establishment’s preferred policy is capture of Kashmir Valley by LIC. If indeed a situation to this effect is considered, India’s immediate response will be to block the flow of Chenab. This course will put Pakistan into doldrums as water flow into Indus River will drastically reduce, as Jhelum will be the only remaining main tributary. Indus River thus will dry up by the time it reaches half of Sindh. It will lead to more internal strife between Punjab and Sindh. Pakistan thus will be at the mercy of India. The extreme consequence of the scenario of losing Chenab to India, and the Kashmir Valley becoming the base for redrawing the map would be detrimental and would lead to entire reworking of the canal and irrigation system in Pakistan. It is thus clear that merely capturing Kashmir will not ensure Pakistan’s water security. It would also need that part of Jammu where Chenab flows, an area of extreme strategic significance to India. Thus, the option of capturing the valley of Kashmir is futile for Pakistan while the Chenab formula will invite war with India.

 

Recommendations to Indian Establishment

 

It must be understood in clear and no uncertain terms that Pakistan is of great interest to the national security of India. Indian interests lie in Pakistan’s continued ability to control its territory from radicals to prevent its use as a haven for anti-Indian activities. To achieve this end state there is a need to prevent the increasing exasperating environmental factors particularly water shortages and its impact on food security which may act本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。