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s reason, the section starts by focusing on the power sector. Noting that energy intensity is high in Macedonia, the section proceeds by examining measures to reduce energy demand, as listed in Chapter 1 above (reducing power distribution losses, etc.).

Power Sector

Installed power generation capacity in Macedonia is 1450 MW, comprising approximately 60 percent thermal and 40 percent hydro plant.

The main thermal generation plant – “Bitola” – has three units each of 225 MW, commissioned starting in 1982 with planned retirement/rehabilitation from 2013. In addition to Bitola, there is a 120 MW lignite fired plant – “Oslomej” – due for retirement in 2013 and a 210 MW oil fired plant – “Negotino” – which, due to prohibitively high fuel costs, has been used very rarely since it was commissioned in 1978. There are also seven large hydro plants in Macedonia with combined capacity 480 MW, and a numberof small hydro plants with total capacity around 50 MW.

Forecast power demand and supply are presented in Table 2 above. On the supply side, the table assumes that there are no new additions to capacity and that plant (specifically Bitola and Oslomej) is retired at current planned dates. The table shows supply for two scenarios: the first scenario assumes that, whilst available, Negotino is not dispatched due to prohibitively high costs; the second scenario assumes that Negotino is dispatched, and is included to illustrate the extent of Macedonia's power import dependency (for example, whilst Macedonia's power imports in 2008 may be close to 30 percent, because it is cheaper to import power than to operate Negotino, it need only import under 15 percent).

The table shows that, absent investment in new capacity and new fuel sources, a capacity imbalance will emerge in the medium term, and that by 2013, should Bitola close, Macedonia would be almost wholly dependent on imported power.

It is unlikely, however, that this situation will ensue in reality, given the various investment options open to Macedonia, which include: opening new lignite seams in existing mines/new lignite mines and – later – rehabilitation of Bitola; investment in new gas fired capacity; and increased power imports.

These are now considered in turn, based on the assumption that the Government of Macedonia will aim to select the most economically beneficial investments from available alternatives.

Maintaining Current Capacity/Bitola

One key issue as regards power balance in Macedonia is fuel supply to the Bitola power plant. This plant currently consumes 6.5 million tones of lignite annually from the Suvodol mine, where remaining reserves in the upper seam are around 60 million ton (i.e. enough to fire Bitola for another nine years [to the end of the design life for the first unit of the plant]).

A study carried out for ESM by Harza in 2000 suggested that exploitation of deposits in the Suvodol lower seam (where reserves are estimated to be around 36 million tons), and from a new mine (“Brod Gneotino”, with estimated reserves of 43 Million tons), together with rehabilitation of Bitola from 本论文由英语论文网提供整理，提供论文代写，英语论文代写，代写论文，代写英语论文，代写留学生论文，代写英文论文，留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。