d Shen Jinsheng (1999) analyzed Beijing-Shanghai (Jing Hu) high speed railway’s impacts on the economic developments of the region along the railway. They stated that high-speed railway systems play an important role in easing transportation pressure, accelerating the economic integration, stimulating the development of knowledge economy and proving more employment opportunities.
Brian Sands (1993) is a professor of Institute of Urban and Regional Development at University of California. He studied the development effects of high-speed railway systems by focusing on three cases of the French TGV, German ICE, and Japanese Shinkansen. He found out that high-speed railway systems have a relationship with increased growth rates in retail, industrial, construction, and wholesale sectors (Sands). In particular, in the cities along the Sanyo Shinkansen Line in Japan, strong growth had been seen in the food and accommodation sectors. As shown in the figure, information, investigation, advertising services grew more rapidly than in the case without Shinkansen. Also, he believed that railways’ routing can affect their ability to cause growth.
Table3. Information Exchange Industries Employment Growth (Percent) in Regions with Population Increase, 1981- 1985
Chen (2005), a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, analyzed the impact of high-speed passenger railway on regional economic development. He established a mathematic model and built a regression equation to produce a quantitative analysis. He took the Qinhuangdao Shenyang special passenger line as a typical example and came up with the conclusion that the operation of high-speed rail system can promote the Tertiary Industry.
In 2013, the World Bank Transport team tried to identify and quantify the impacts of China’s emerging high speed rail program. They supported both on-the-ground surveys and economic studies. They piloted a methodology to evaluate benefits for several high-speed railway projects (Salzberg).
2.4 Three sector hypothesis (Petty’s Law)
2.41 Overview
Three sector hypothesis or Petty’s Law is an empirical theory that reveals the change of industrial structure in the process of economic development. In the 17th century, a Western economist William Petty found that with the continuous economic development, industrial centers will gradually shift from the production of tangible goods to the production of intangible services. In 1691, based on the actual situation in the United Kingdom, William Petty clearly pointed out that as the profits generated by the manufacturing industry are usually much larger than those of agriculture, and the profits generated by the commerce industry are usually much larger than those of manufacturing industry. As a result, labors would work in the manufacturing industry rather than in the agriculture, and eventually work in the commerce industry.
Later in 1940, based on William Petty’s study on the relationship between income and labor flow, Colin Clark, a British economist, measured and compared the trends of employment in the distributed architecture in thrice industries at different income levels. Colin Clark believed that his findings confirm Petty’s theory which was raised in 1691.
According to the three-sector hypothesis, there are three types of economic activities. These activities
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