经济学留学论文:汇率波动性 [4]
论文作者:www.51lunwen.org论文属性:硕士毕业论文 dissertation登出时间:2015-11-06编辑:zhaotianyun点击率:25321
论文字数:11297论文编号:org201511032137271785语种:英语 English地区:中国价格:免费论文
关键词:贸易自由化capacity utilisation汇率波动
摘要:本文主要讲述了汇率波动和贸易流之间的关系。从理论和实证的角度来看,汇率和波动性之间的关系是模糊的。
ome and to relative prices in a large sample of both developing and industrial countries. Marquez and McNeilly(1988) examined income and price elasticities for exports of non-OPEC developing countries using quarterly data for 1973-84. This study was based on the two-stage square estimation technique. Import prices, real income and lagged endogenous variables were the main explanatory variables. They found a positive and significant income elasticities for exports and a significant relationship between prices and exports. Among other prominent empirical works which find a positive and significant relationship between trade and income are Sachs and Warner(1995), Frankel and Romer(1999) and Edwards(1998). Wu(2004)constructed a foreign trade model for China using error correction model. They found a significant and inelastic relationship between relative price and export demand.
Other empirical works included exchange rate as a determinant of export in their model. It is widely known in the international trade literature that a change in real exchange rates will affect trade flows directly with all other things being equal. A change in the real exchange rate rather than a change in the nominal exchange rate will affect exports and imports under the Generalized Marshall-Lerner condition. Also real exchange rate is another important measure of a country's competitiveness. Real exchange rate is the nominal exchange rate that has been adjusted for inflation differentials. A real depreciation or devaluation of domestic currency will lead to an improvement in trade flows of a country and vice versa. This is because if the price of the currency of a country is low, its exports will be cheaper hence demand for its exports will increase. Imports also will be affected since imports will appear more expensive to local residents. However empirical works have found diverging results when assessing whether exchange rate have any effects on trade.
Miles (1979) tested the effects of devaluation by entering the exchange rate directly into the trade flows. The results obtained were not conclusive since the exchange rate coefficient with respect to trade flows was significant in only three out of 14 cases examined. Warner and Kreinin(1983) specified the determinants of trade flows of 19 developing countries using conventional models. They found that the effect of real exchange rate changes on the volume of exports are significant as predicted by the theory. Similarly Himarios(1989) reassessed the impact of devaluation on real magnitude of trade flows and found that real exchange rates had a significant effect on trade flows. Rose (1991) analysed the relationship between the effective real exchange rate and the real trade flows for five major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries: the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Japan, and the United States. He found no relationship between these two variables, and thus the generalized Marshall-Lerner condition did not hold.
Bahmani-Oskooee and Malixi (1992) based their work on Almon lag structure on real exchange rate but found no support for a relationship between trade and real exchange rate. However on employing the Engle-Granger cointegration approach, Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse (1994) assert that the long-run impact of devaluation on the trade balance model is positive. Bahmani-Oskooee concluded that trade flows are more re
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