经济学留学论文:汇率波动性 [2]
论文作者:www.51lunwen.org论文属性:硕士毕业论文 dissertation登出时间:2015-11-06编辑:zhaotianyun点击率:25319
论文字数:11297论文编号:org201511032137271785语种:英语 English地区:中国价格:免费论文
关键词:贸易自由化capacity utilisation汇率波动
摘要:本文主要讲述了汇率波动和贸易流之间的关系。从理论和实证的角度来看,汇率和波动性之间的关系是模糊的。
pegged to the sterling. The rupee started floating vis-?-vis other foreign currencies in June 1972 while still being pegged to the sterling. However as from 1976, the Mauritian rupee was delinked from the sterling and was pegged to the SDR. The rupee-SDR peg lasted for seven years and as from 1983 Mauritius pegged its currency to a trade-weighted basket of currencies. This is because the appreciation of the dollar US which had the highest weight in the SDR basket caused the rupee to appreciate considerably and hence causing inflation. Hence the Mauritian rupee had to be delinked to the SDR. In the 1990s, Mauritius embarked on a set of financial liberalisation reforms and in 1994 exchange rate controls were removed and Mauritius adopted a manage float exchange rate regime.
The evolution of the exchange rate system from a fixed to a manage float one implies that the exchange rate in Mauritius is subject to wider fluctuations. This begs the question whether the fluctuations in the rupee has any significant impact on the volume of trade in Mauritius and which of the theories advanced by researchers is applicable for Mauritius. Bilateral trade between Mauritius and USA is considered to assess this question. The rest of the paper is organised as follows:
Chapter 2 presents a broad survey of the literature concerning the relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility. Chapter 3 describes the model that will be used and presents the
methodology that will be applied. Chapter 4 presents the empirical findings of our study and the interpretation of our results. Finally chapter 5 presents the summary and conclusion of our study and also provides some policy implications and implications.
2.1 介绍——2.1 Introduction
The 1970s saw the demise of the Bretton Woods system since a fixed exchange rate system no longer appeared feasible given the speculative flows of the currencies. This led to the adoption of a freely-floating exchange rate regime by many countries. Since March 1973, exchange rates have become more volatile and less predictable than they were during the fixed exchange rate period when changes occurred infrequently. There have been considerable investigations on the effect of Exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade. The increase in the risk of international transactions led researchers to investigate the exchange rate volatility-trade flows connection. Investigators argue that variability increases uncertainty and risk which causes firms to produce less than they would produce under certainty. This view was supported by Baron(1970), Clark(1973) and Ethier(1973). Empirical studies which yielded a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade include Akhtar and Hilton(1984), Fountas and Aristotelous(1999), Arize(1997, 1998a and 1998b) and Rose(2000).
However other authors have rejected this view, arguing that the exchange rate volatility have very little or at times even positive impact on trade volume. Researchers like Hooper and Kohlhagen (1978), Bahmani et Tavlas(1988), Bahmani et al.(1993), Bailey, Tavlas and Ulan(1987), found evidence of a negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on trade volume, the effect was insignificant. Klassen(2004) also found no significant relationship between Exchange rate volatility and international trade. Research conducted by McKenzie and Brooks(1997), Fr
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