留学生论文定制-格式要求和范例 [4]
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论文字数:2297论文编号:org201405171659471800语种:英语 English地区:中国价格:免费论文
关键词:留学生论文定制格式要求范例润色
摘要:From this information I can derive the conclusion that the variable qt seems to be non-stationary. Also, the absence of a clear trend in its movement. In order to validate my conclusion, next I try to test unit roots of qt. Unit root test is a existence of a unit root test sequences.
the exchange rate between the two countries due to the ratio between their purchasing power parity. There are two senses in purchasing power parity theory hypothesis. Absolute Purchasing Power Theory and Relative Purchasing Power Theory. Absolute Purchasing Power Theory is also known as The Law of One price. The conditions of law of one price contains all the countries have adopted the same degree of currency convertibility, the information must be fully, there is no transaction costs and the tariffs should be zero. Then we can conclude that the equilibrium exchange rate between the domestic currency and foreign currency should be equal to the ratio of purchasing power or price levels between the domestic and foreign countries. But absolute is not perfect, so the economists use Relative purchasing power theory which is “the change of the exchange rate over a given period just offsets the difference in inflation rates in the countries concerned over the same period(Journal of Economic Perspectives pp137)”. Contrast to absolute purchasing power parity theory , it consider with inflation rate because sometimes inflation will reducing the purchasing power parity of currencies. The relationship between absolute and relative PPP is that if absolute PPP holds then the relative PPP must hold because the price index is the ratio between . But if relative PPP holds, the absolute PPP dose not necessarily hold, since “it is possible that common changes in nominal exchange rates are happening at different levels of purchasing power for the two currencies(Journal of Economic Perspectives pp137)”.
My study aims to investigate the relationship between the purchasing power parity and exchange rate, inflation rate. I chose China and US to be my investigation objects. China is the biggest developing country and it kept 10% growth rate over the last 30 years. In 2010, it overtook japan as the world’s second largest economy. At the same time, China is the largest exporter and second importer of goods in the world. US, the largest economy of the world, approximately a quarter of the global GDP.
Theoretical and empirical relationships
In order to investigate whether the purchasing power parity holds, I collected the CPI data of China and US from 1993-2012 and the data of the exchange between those two countries.
First I used the approach which has been proposed by Frankel on 1978. This approach attempted to test whether the real exchange rate is stationary. In the other words, it tested whether the real exchange rate process follows a random walk. Then I try to test the following equation:
qt=st-pt+pt*
which st is the log of nominal exchange rate, pt is the log of CPI in China and pt* is the log of CPI in US, qt is the real exchange rate. This approach has two hypothesis:
H0: qt ~ I(1)
H1:qt ~ I(0)
The null hypothesis means that the equation contains at least one unit root and the series is not stationary. The other one means that there is no unit root.So if we can reject the null hypothesis means that the purchasing power parity does hold in the long-run.
From eviews I got a graph of the real exchange rate between the CPI of China and US.
Visual inspection offers several insights. First, we may not
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