摘要:Through empirical analysis on policy factors towards the stock market, we found that the stock market reacted strongly to the policy. The problem of “policy market” is rather serious.
et, it was discovered that the policy has a significant effect on the index fluctuations, and a policy would lead the release of the short-term daily average excess returns for the index of 1.671 times than the normal level(Peng Wenping and Xiao Jihui, 2002); The span of influence was in a convergent trend of the impact policies towards index.(Pan Weirong and Mei Xue, 2002); worst inefficiency in stock market(There is “lack of policy response,” or “policy response to excessive”), the stock market reacted inconsistently to the good and bad policy, and there were significant expected policy response(Hu Jinyan, 2002). The empirical results some relevant academics hold on the “Price Limit” system (Lv Jihong and Zhao Zhenquan, 2000; Zhang Jian, Wang Yiming and Lv Suiqi, 2002), “reduction of interest rate” policy (Tang Qiming, 2000) and “state owned stock” underweight policy (Cao Honghui, 2002) in the impact on the stock market, also support the above mentioned general statistical conclusions.
1.3 China’s Stock Market Development and Current Situation
Stock market is a place where stocks are issued and exchanged. Stock market is a complex economic system, which involves listed companies, investors, intermediate agencies and supervisors. Chinas stock market is the product of the reform and opening up period, the attempts at reform government led, rather than the spontaneous creation of private market economy, which buried a hidden danger for the variation of China’s stock market.
1.3.1 The Development Process of China’s Stock Market
November 18, 1984, Chinas first public offering of stock -- Shanghai Feile Audio Agency issued a million shares (par 50 Yuan per share) to the community, hailed as a signal Chinas reform and opening up. September 26, 1986, the first counter securities transactions -- Shanghai Jingan securities execution department opened a business, marking that there is completely stock trade in new China. At that time, there were only two stock traded at the counter, Feile Audio Visual companys total share capital of 500,000 Yuan, while Yanzhong industry companys total share capital of 5 million Yuan, a total of only 5.5 million Yuan. The 100 shares of Feile Audio Visual (600,651) bought an empty on the day it listed in less than one and a half hours.
December 19, 1990, and July 3, 1991, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange has officially opened, at that time the number of shares listed only a small number of a few, and with small scale. After the Shanghai Stock Exchange official opened, only eight listed stocks, known as “the old eight legged
essay.” The relationship between market supply and demand is extremely unbalanced, thus causing price spikes in the first two years. Most representative of the quantitative indicators of Chinas stock market benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (from December 19, 1990 began to count points, Shanghai Composite Index set up an index of 100 points, has risen to 292 points by the end of year 1991. May 21, 1992, when Shanghai Stocks opened up stock prices, the Shanghai index of the previous days 623-point rushed to 1,334 points, in just three days, the stock price is sky high, soaring 570%! Among them, five new shares went so far as the spiraling price of face value of 25 to 30 times! And on May 26, it has reached the highest point of 1429 points throughout the year. But since there were more than 30 new stock market that year, compared with an
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