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论文作者:留学生论文论文属性:硕士毕业论文 dissertation登出时间:2010-09-07编辑:vshellyn点击率:6248
论文字数:4500论文编号:org201009072051555962语种:英语 English地区:英国价格:$ 44
关键词:估价模型实证检验Equity ValuationForecast EarningsUK TestOhlson (1995) Model
Following the methodology developed by Dechow, Hutton, and Sloan (1999), this paper conducts a UK test of the Ohlson (1995) model. In line with the predictions of the model, abnormal earnings appear to mean revert for UK data at an even faster rate than that of the US and Swedish listed firms, whereas the opposite is observed for value relevant information parameter. Furthermore, the result of the study confirms that a first order autoregressive process is sufficient to capture persistence of UK abnormal earnings, consistent with the prediction by Ohlson.
Three different specifications of the Ohlson model are examined over the ability of predicting next year’s abnormal earnings and future stock returns, and explaining the contemporaneous stock prices. Consistent with prior research, the results show that richer structure of Ohlson framework provides more accurate abnormal earning estimates than those of book value alone in terms of mean forecast error, although the improvement by adding the “other information” is only marginal. Moreover, evidence shows that intrinsic values estimated, in two specifications out of three, undervalue contemporaneous stock price, although the valuation errors are much smaller compared to the findings in the US and Sweden.
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