specified: the export function and the import function. Each of these linear regressions models will be regressed and individual tests will be carried out on each of them.
3.3.1 导出函数——3.3.1 The export function
In the analysis, we will use a traditional export demand which was used by Asseery and Peel (1991), Chowdhury (1993), Arize (1995) and Aristotelous(2002). However, this model is augmented by three additional variables: investment, inflation and capacity utilisation. Hence the the long-run equilibrium export demand can be written as:
Xt = {Vt, RYt, RERt,, INVGt, INFt, CUt }
REXP= ?0 + ?1Vt + ?2RYt + ?3RERt + ?4INVGt+ ?5INFt + ?6CUt + ut
Where
REXPt = Real Exports of Mauritius
Vt = Exchange Rate volatility
RYt = Real Foreign Income
RERt = Real Exchange Rate
INVGt= Investment as a percentage of GDP
INFt=Domestic inflation rate
CUt=Capacity utilisation of USA
Ut = the error term
Gotur (1985) illustrated that Equation 1 is a long-run reduced solution to a system of behavioural demand and supply functions for exports. Also the above variables will be in logs such that the equation can be written as follows:
LREXP= ?0 + ?1LVt + ?2LRYt + ?3LRERt + ?4LINVGt+ ?4LINFt + ?4LCUt + ut
便利Definition of variables
真正的出口——Real Exports
The dependent variable in the equation is real exports. It represents the inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the total exports to the USA from Mauritius in a givenquarter, expressed in base-year prices. Real exports is obtained by dividing the nominal exports figures by export prices of Mauritius. Data will be obtained from the CSO and from the IMF statistical database.
国民收入——National Income
The real foreign income of an economy is proxied by the real GDP of the importing country that is USA. It is measured in the importing country's currency. Theory, supported by empirical evidence, suggests that the impact of real foreign income on exports should be positive. An increase in real GDP implies that the overall purchasing power of the country has increased and thus demand for Mauritian exports should increase and vice versa. Hence a positive coefficient is expected.
双臂实际汇率——Bilateral Real Exchange Rate
This is the real spot exchange rate between Mauritius and the US. The real exchange rate must be define in such a way that an increase in ER reflects a depreciation of the Mauritian Rupees and if this depreciation should cause demand for Mauritian exports to increase, then the estimation of ?4 should be positive. Data about the exchange rate will be obtained from the IMF
statistics. The real exchange rate will be obtained by dividing the nominal exchange rate with domestic prices and multiplying it by foreign prices.
LRER= (ERxPf)/P*
Where ER is the nominal exchange rate. Pf is the foreign prices that is the CPI of USA and P* is the domestic price that is the CPI of Mauritius.
汇率波动本论文由英语论文网提供整理,提供论文代写,英语论文代写,代写论文,代写英语论文,代写留学生论文,代写英文论文,留学生论文代写相关核心关键词搜索。