摘要:本文是分析黄金在经济中的作用的瑞典留学生论文,黄金已经在人类的历史中存在了数千年。它是最早转化成主要用于仪式或装饰性目的的金属之一。事实上,这种即漂亮又易于制造的金属激发了工匠用它来创造物件,它不仅是装饰品,而且也是财富和权力有力的象征。
ally over performed all these indexes. Gold price increased by more than 20% [13] while all the other commodities were halving their value.
This huge increase confirms that Gold is not perceived as the other commodities by investors. In a period in which the value of commodities and stock markets were plummeting, Gold price has surged giving a positive answer in return of the financial crisis intensification.
In fact, being perceived as a ‘safe heaven’ characterized by ‘inflation fighter’ and ‘exchange rate protector’ abilities, more and more investors start to substitute their risky assets with Gold, pushing its price upwards. Gold has become an attractive alternative investment for investors looking for more conservatives, certain investments vehicles to face market turbulence periods.
Obviously the increasing demand for Gold in response to negative market shocks is partially due to its financial peculiarity as its low Beta and its value maintenance as a physical asset. Anyway, we could easily affirm that great part of Gold positive performances during periods of financial instability are also driven by investors looking for the best choice available to diversify their portfolio.
As a matter of facts, this phenomenon helps the creation of a virtuous circle for Gold. The more investors, questioning about Financial market’s health, will choose Gold as an alternative investment asset, the more Gold price would increase, confirming itself as a good choice in period of market turbulence.
In addition, negative market shocks are often followed by quantitative easing policy as open market operations and falls in Fed rates. In a worst scenario, this policy could lead to hyperinflation concerns, enhancing Gold role of Dollar devaluation protector and strongly increasing the demand for the precious metal.
Some researches analyze Gold counter-cyclicality in relation to the different stock markets. For example Dirk G. Baur and Brian M. Lucey examined US, UK and German stocks performances and their relationship with Gold ones [14] .
The main analysis results evidence that Gold counter performs with the great majority of developed countries stock markets. Anyway that’s not true for other countries as the BRIC ones (Brazil, Russia, India and China) further than Australia, Canada and Japan.
Source: Gold World Council, DataStream [15]
The main reason explaining why the negative correlation between stocks and Gold doesn’t work within emerging markets is that, in response to negative market conditions, emerging market investors can shift their interests to safer developed markets instead of Gold investment alternative.
Concerning Australia and Canada stock-market positive correlation with Gold, this event is mainly due to the relevant proportion of mining companies in these countries’ stock markets. Rio Tinto Ltd, BHP Billiton and Goldcorp Inc, with a bundle market capitalization reaching hundreds billion dollars, represent the best example of Gold and other commodities co movement with Australian and Canadian stock markets.
Anyway, main results are consistent with the statement that Gold provide refuge for worried investors when it is most needed.
In a period in which Gold price come through its historical peak, reaching $1200 per ounce, boosted by the global market crisis eff
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