摘要:债务对经济有多方面的影响的。作为一篇留学生毕业论文,本论文探讨了西非经济共同体国家的外债和偿债在经济增长时期带来的影响,债务又称为财政赤字,运用得当能够拉动经济,刺激发展。
r but and statistically significant for only Niger while it have not adverse effect on the remaining ECOWAS countries.
However, external debt stock coefficients are negative and statistically significant for Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Niger, Nigeria but not for Sierra Leone and Togo respectively.
5.4 Error Correction Model (ECM)
This section provides the results of the error correction models for the GDP, external debt stock plus debt serving for the above ten ECOWAS countries. According to ADF and PP test the series are stationary and the order of integration of times series are I (1).
The optimum lags orders are selected by Akaike Information Criterion. The error correction term used in the error correction model is obtained from the estimated long-run relationship.
Estimated short-run external debt-growth models for Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea –Bissau, Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo are represented in Table 2 page 30. . The ECM coefficient estimates for the debt variables are all negative (as expected) and statistically significant suggesting the adverse effect that foreign indebtedness is having on these economies.
5.5 What is the pattern of ECOWAS countries of external debt stock in the past?
This section will intend to link the external debt stock with the results of the test made.
Figure 2: The Graphical Trend of ECOWAS Countries External Debt Stock
As can be seen from Figure 2 above, trend in external debt stock for ECOWAS countries are quite similar and parallel to each other over the years. The movements are approximately the same. Thus, our findings that external debt stock serves one as the main catalyst of economic growth for the ECOWAS countries in the short run in Table 3 is also reasonable according to Figure 2 as well.
5.6. What is the impact of External debt and servicing on the ECOWAS Countries economic growth?
The ECM analysis examines the long term level relationship between the external debt stock, debt servicing and the gross domestic product of the each ECOWAS countries. It was revealed that there is a significant long term relationship between the variables. Besides, external debt stock was found to be positive in Benin, Niger but negative in Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea- Bissau, Nigeria, Sierra-Leone and Togo.
As indicated by the ECM analysis in Table 3. This is consistent with the findings in level equation results in Table 3. The results indicate the existence of a bi- directional linkage between external debt stock, debt servicing and economic growth equations. These results tally with similar results with similar studies (Elbadawi, et al. 1996, Farhang Niroomand and Iskandar S. Hamvi 1996 and Mbanga & Sikol, 2001)
The estimation results for the ECOWAS countries identified external debt stock deter economic but also debt servicing. The error correction results also shows that external debt stock and debt servicing have negative impact on the economic growth of the ECOWAS countries This is because money that ought to be available in the economy are removed and used to service external debt; this would hinders productivity since the needed fund to embark upon production activities and expansion have been withdrawn.
In conclu
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