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英国assignment代写|全球和美国的住宅市场
The Global And Us House Market

近年来，与房价的分析测定是特别感兴趣的不仅是经济学家。房地产价格的变化和与房地产市场有关的任何问题也经常在媒体上讨论，由于一般人群的兴趣增加。
80年代广泛的金融管制开始提高抵押融资的可及性和刺激住房需求。英国的银行开始从抵押贷款中获利越来越多。为了继续有利可图的竞选活动，许多银行变得粗心，降低了他们的住房贷款的标准。在某一点上，许多银行的战略是基于大规模贷款的想法，而不考虑后果。暂时的经济稳定和房屋市场的增长是误导性的，这是一个时间问题，在人们面临困难偿还他们的抵押贷款。所谓的“不良贷款”的增加，导致银行陷入困境。

In recent years, analysis and determination of house prices have been in particular interest not only to economists but also to econometricians. Changes in prices of real estate and any issues related with the house market have been also frequently discussed in the media due to the raising interest among the general population.

In the beginning of the eighties extensive financial deregulations raised the accessibility of mortgage finance and stimulated the housing demand. Banks in the UK started to profit more and more from mortgage lending. In order to continue the profitable campaign many banks became careless, lowering their criteria on house loans. At some point many bank strategies were based on the idea of massive lending without thinking of the consequences. The temporal economic stability and house market growth were misleading and it was a matter of time before people faced difficulties paying back their mortgage payments. The increased number of the so called 'bad loans' led the banks into trouble. They started facing liquidity problems and the first big victim was Northern Rock [1] . UK's biggest provider of mortgage loans collapsed and soon after that, the whole economy was already facing a recession. It took nearly three years for the UK to exit the recession and the result was only a 0.1 per cent GDP growth for the last quarter of 2009. What this paper wants to focus on is the house price behaviour in the pre-crisis period in the UK.

Many OECD countries like UK, USA and Spain experienced a more than 70 per cent increase in house prices for the period between 1996 and 2005. By historical standards, this was a strong performance. The real estate sector played a big and important role in the recent global recession and many concerns were raised about overvaluation of house prices. In general, houses act as any other good being traded on the market and they should be highly sensitive to the surrounding economic environment. Moreover, the high increase of dwelling values in the period of discussion must be supported and explained by economic fundamentals. A lack of econometric evidence for the movements of house prices might suggest an existence of a 'bubble' [2] in the housing market.

In this paper I use monthly time-series data for a ten year period raging from 1996 to 2005 to analyse the performance of the UK house market. I employ co-integration analysis and Vector error-correction model approach to assess the long-run equilibrium and the short-run dynamic of house price movements in respect to several macroeconomic fundamentals.

The exposition of this paper is organized as follows. The following section surveys previous theoretical and empirical literature on house price behaviour. Section 3 derives the model in the paper and explains the choice of variables. Section 4 applies the Vector-error correction model and presents the results obtained. Finally, section 5 concludes.

2. Brief economic background theory and literature review
House price dynamics is a widely di