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由于逃税和地下经济被描述为世界上普遍存在的现象，本文的目的是收集有关所有相关变量的知识和对黑色经济的过程中的影响。此外，为了制定预算赤字的模型来分析逃税的影响，文献回顾将提供一些有益的见解。

As tax evasion and underground economy have been described as phenomenon prevalent over the globe, this chapter aims to gather knowledge about all relevant variables and their impact on course of black economy. Further, in order to formulate a model of budget deficit to analyze impacts of tax evasion, review of literature will provide some useful insights.

Overview of Black Economy estimations 黑色经济综述

Various studies on underground economy and its estimation have been conducted. For sake of estimation, both direct and indirect methods have been used in the studies. Direct methods can be either survey based or tax auditing of tax returns by tax collecting authority. However, there is tendency of hiding information in survey approach because people may not disclose their illegal activities due to fear. Besides, both direct approaches are dubious to capture effects of all shadow activities. (Kemal, 2003) gives example of direct approach in his study in which direct approach was used by team under the commissioner of internal revenue service. Tax returns of a random sample of 50,000 people were scrutinized.

Indirect methods include monetary, fiscal and labor market approach and use traces of black economy for estimation. Monetary approach is based on assumptions which have been heavily criticized. Velocity of money is assumed to be equal for both economies but some authors have refuted this assumption and suggest that velocity of underground economy is higher than formal economy. Secondly, monetary approach uses assumption that all transactions are cash based and thus disregards the fact that some barter transactions like bribe are based on physical asset like car. (Smith, 1986) founds this disregard to be questionable.

(Guttmann, 1977) used monetary approach with additional assumption that ratio of currency in circulation to M2 remains constant if underground economy is non-existent. Besides, (Guttmann, 1977) forces currency in circulation to increase with demand deposits which according to (Kemal, 2003) is not necessarily the case because people might shift preference from demand to time deposits.

(Cagan, 1958) acknowledged interest rate, real GDP per capita and other income tax relevant variables to impact currency ratio. On similar grounds, (Tanzi, 1980) used tax rate for sake of estimation of underground economy. Unlike (Guttmann, 1977), (Tanzi, 1980) used M2 as denominator and hence, increase in currency holding is not forced with increase in demand deposits. But still his model had problem of assuming constant velocity and only cash transactions. (Tanzi, 1980) only used tax rate as tax variable because he was of view that indirect taxes are difficult to evade.

(Kemal, 2003) and (Khalid, 2002) have used tax to GDP ratio in their respective models but their estimates for this variable significantly vary from each other. (Yasmin & Rauf, 2003) used one-period lag of tax to GDP ratio which has not been incorporated in other models. However, they haven't used foreign currency accounts in their dependent variable and therefore dummy for capturing effects of foreign currency and dollarisation accounts has not been included.

(Kemal, 2003), (Yasmin & Rauf, 2003) and (Khalid, 2002) have all used banking services for purpose o