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论文题目：Artificial Intelligence 课后题目 
论文语种：英文
您的研究方向：computer science
是否有数据处理要求：否
您的国家：美国
您的学校背景：
要求字数：200-500
论文用途：硕士预科作业

Q1。血液检测是检测一种疾病90%有效的方式。它也会有错误地诊断，一个健康的人有疾病的3%的概率，但如果10%的测试有这种疾病，一个测试阳性的人实际上会有这种疾病的概率是什么？

Q1. A blood test is 90% effective in detecting a disease. It also falsely diagnoses that a healthy person has the disease 3% of the time. If 10% of those tested have the disease, what is the probability that a person who tests positive will actually have the disease? 

Q2。什么是快速原型设计，为什么它是专家系统方法论的一个重要部分？什么在人工智能有助于快速原型？Q2. What is rapid prototyping and why is it an important piece of the expert system methodology? What in AI assists rapid prototyping? 

Q3。你认为爱的未来是什么？证明你的答案。Q3. What do you see as the future of AI? Justify your answer. 

Q1:We assumpt that a1 represents people are healty,and a2 imply people are unhealty, and b1 represents that blood test is positive, and b2 imply the test is negative. From the question, we know that p(b1|a2) = 0.9 and p(b1|a1) = 0.03; and that p(a1) = 0.9 and p(a2) = 0.1. We wantta know the probability that a person whos tests positive will have the disease. That means caculate p(a2|b1), and it equate p(a2b1)/p(b1). And p(a2b1) = p(b1|a2)p(a2) = 0.9*0.1, and p(b1) = p(b1|a1) + p(b1|a2) = 0.93. Then the result is 0.09/0.93, that's 0.096774.

Q2:Rapid prototyping is a software development technique. And it is important in buiding the expert system because it can demonstrate the feasibility of the system. Rapid prototyping seems to be an appropriate
strategy-especially given the usual vagueness of the understanding of what can be accomplished. In contrast to the waterfall model, which emphasizes rigorous specification and planning, RP approaches emphasize the necessity of adjusting requirements in reaction to knowledge gained as the project progresses. 
AI includes many specific techniques, which can assist the RP to some extent. For instance, techniques for ranking and selecting critical parameters system can help software development enviroment choose optimized parameter to prompt the rapid prototyping, and knowledge-based and expert system can assist the rapid prototyping by detecting the error in the process of rapid prototyping.

Q3: In my opition, the AI will have a bright future. As we know that AI now is a very hot area of computer science since it overcome the black era during 80s. Recently, Google , Facebook and other big companies all put numerous money in this area, these investment along with the efforts of researchers will all boost the development of AI.

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